St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Leo BernalBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Giants- Bryce EldridgeBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Blade TidwellPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Whitcomb doubled to right, Lee scored.6–7
- 8Lee doubled to right, Cox scored and Eldridge scored.6–6
- 8Cox reached on infield single to shortstop, Hill scored, Eldridge to second.6–4
- 8Eldridge singled to center, B. Harris scored and Cavanaugh scored, Hill to third.6–3
- 6Fermín hit sacrifice fly to center, Saggese scored, Church to third.6–1
- 5Bernal grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Torres scored, Burleson out at second, Herrera to third.5–1
- 3Bernal homered to right (378 feet), Herrera scored and Burleson scored.4–1
- 2Gorman singled to left, Báez scored.1–1
- 1Eldridge singled to left, Gilbert scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML STL -123 / SF +102
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- STL: Elo 54.2%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- STL -111
- SF +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.1 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −20 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Blade Tidwell: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +29 Elo | STL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 10th of 3038–36 | Road vs home | 35–3621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 19th of 301490 | Elo rating | 147424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–65 | 73–73 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–36 | 20–30 |
| Underdog | 66–29 | 53–43 |
| Overs–unders | 65–73–8 | 67–66–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 10–11 SF in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.