St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cooper HjerpePitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Jake McCarthyBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCarthy singled to right, Goodman scored and Veen scored.10–8
- 8McCarthy homered to right (435 feet).10–6
- 8Burleson singled to right, Herrera scored.10–5
- 8Herrera doubled to right, Fermín scored and Saggese scored.9–5
- 5Gorman homered to center (426 feet), Báez scored.7–5
- 5Báez singled to center, Walker scored on error and Bernal scored on fielding error by center fielder Carrigg, Báez to third.5–5
- 5Bernal singled to right, Burleson scored and Herrera scored, Walker to third.3–5
- 3Moniak homered to center (436 feet), Carrigg scored and Rumfield scored.1–5
- 2Church singled to right, Saggese scored, Church to second.1–2
- 1Moniak singled to right, Rumfield scored.0–2
- 1Rumfield doubled to left, McCarthy scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 55%
- ML STL -136 / COL +113
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.1 pts
- STL: Elo 62.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -123
- COL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 5.7 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −13 | STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +87 Elo | STL 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.76th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.029th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 10th of 3037–34 | Road vs home | 30–4028th of 30 |
| 1st of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301491 | Elo rating | 141430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–65 | 76–66 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 14–36 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 64–29 | 71–61 |
| Overs–unders | 63–72–8 | 67–71–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 12–12 COL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.