St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Mason AdamsPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Herrera singled to right, Fermín scored.7–10
- 9Fermín doubled to center, Saggese scored.6–10
- 7Veen hit sacrifice bunt, Goodman scored, Carrigg to second.5–10
- 7Carrigg singled to left, Norby scored, Goodman to third.5–9
- 7Goodman singled to left, McCarthy scored and Tovar scored, Goodman to second, Norby to third.5–8
- 6Saggese hit sacrifice fly to right, Báez scored, Gorman to third.5–6
- 6Gorman doubled to right, Bernal scored, Báez to third.4–6
- 5Rumfield doubled to center, Norby scored.3–6
- 5Norby singled to right, McCarthy scored.3–5
- 5Tovar stole home, McCarthy stole second, McCarthy safe at third on throwing error by catcher Bernal.3–4
- 5Tovar stole home, McCarthy stole second, McCarthy safe at third on throwing error by catcher Bernal.3–4
- 5McCarthy walked, Amador scored on Liberatore wild pitch, Tovar to third on wild pitch by Liberatore.3–3
- 5Amador singled to left, Johnston scored.3–2
- 5Johnston singled to right, Carrigg scored on error, Johnston safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Walker.3–1
- 5Herrera homered to center (443 feet), Church scored.3–0
- 2Báez homered to left (422 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 54%
- ML STL -130 / COL +108
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- STL: Elo 53.4%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- STL -118
- COL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 5.7 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +25 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Mason Adams: team allows 1.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +24 Elo | STL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.029th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 3037–33 | Road vs home | 29–4028th of 30 |
| 1st of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 17th of 301494 | Elo rating | 141230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–64 | 75–66 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 14–35 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 64–29 | 70–61 |
| Overs–unders | 62–72–8 | 66–71–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 12–11 COL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 23.