St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Rockies- TJ RumfieldBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Herrera homered to center (430 feet), Saggese scored and Fermín scored.7–6
- 7Rumfield homered to right center (441 feet).4–6
- 6Veen hit sacrifice bunt, Johnston scored, Amador to second.4–5
- 6Amador singled to right, Norby scored, Johnston to third.4–4
- 6Carrigg homered to center (428 feet).4–3
- 6Rumfield scored on Rincón wild pitch.4–2
- 6Rumfield scored on Rincón wild pitch.4–2
- 5Walker sacrificed into double play, center to first to third to second, Torres scored, Herrera thrown out at second.4–1
- 5Burleson reached on infield single to shortstop, Church scored, Herrera to second, Torres to third.3–1
- 2Saggese doubled to center, Báez scored, Gorman to third.2–1
- 2Gorman singled to right, Bernal scored, Báez to second.1–1
- 1Goodman hit sacrifice fly to left, McCarthy scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 55%
- ML STL -133 / COL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.7 pts
- STL: Elo 62.2%, market 54.5%
- Fair odds
- STL -120
- COL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 5.7 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −11 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +87 Elo | STL 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 54.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.029th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 9th of 3036–33 | Road vs home | 29–3928th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301493 | Elo rating | 141330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–63 | 74–66 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–34 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 64–29 | 69–61 |
| Overs–unders | 61–72–8 | 65–71–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 11–11 COL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.