St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Giants- Bryce EldridgeBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 11Whitcomb reached on infield single to shortstop, Furman scored.4–5
- 10Eldridge singled to center, Hill scored, Devers to second.4–4
- 10Bernal singled to right, Burleson scored.4–3
- 9Fermín hit sacrifice fly to left, Báez scored.3–3
- 7Church doubled to right, Gorman scored.2–3
- 6Burleson homered to right (431 feet).1–3
- 5Eldridge doubled to center, Devers scored.0–3
- 3Eldridge hit sacrifice fly to center, Koss scored.0–2
- 1Devers doubled to right, Hill scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 54%
- ML STL +109 / SF -131
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- SF: Elo 50.8%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.1 – 4.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −9 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +6 Elo | SF 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 3038–34 | Road vs home | 33–3624th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 19th of 301492 | Elo rating | 147226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–65 | 73–71 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–36 | 20–28 |
| Underdog | 64–29 | 53–43 |
| Overs–unders | 64–72–8 | 66–65–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 10–9 SF in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 19.