St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Bryan TorresBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Quinn MathewsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Giants- Christian KossBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Torres singled to right, Church scored.1–2
- 2Koss homered to left (373 feet).0–2
- 1Eldridge homered to left center (389 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 50%
- ML STL -110 / SF -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- SF: Elo 49.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SF -100
- STL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.8 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +2 | STL: Quinn Mathews: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +2 Elo | STL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 10th of 3038–35 | Road vs home | 34–3622nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 19th of 301491 | Elo rating | 147326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–65 | 73–72 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–36 | 20–29 |
| Underdog | 65–29 | 53–43 |
| Overs–unders | 65–72–8 | 67–65–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 10–10 SF in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 20.