San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Dustin HarrisBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Yunior MartePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Devers homered to right (388 feet), Knizner scored, Koss scored and Cox scored.7–5
- 3Fermin doubled to left, Harris scored.7–1
- 3Harris tripled to right, Bogaerts scored.6–1
- 3Bogaerts doubled to left, Campusano scored and Merrill scored.5–1
- 3Campusano doubled to left, Cronenworth scored.3–1
- 2Fermin doubled to center, Harris scored.2–1
- 2Harris singled to left, Merrill scored.1–1
- 1Eldridge singled to center, Cox scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 59%
- ML SD -163 / SF +134
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- SD: Elo 54.7%, market 59.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -145
- SF +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 3.3 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +1 | SD: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Anthony Molina: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +33 Elo | SD 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 19th of 3031–38 | Road vs home | 36–3619th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 9th of 301525 | Elo rating | 147524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–72 | 74–73 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–47 | 20–30 |
| Underdog | 48–25 | 54–43 |
| Overs–unders | 63–78–5 | 68–66–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 31–18 SF in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 49.