San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Giants- Andrew KniznerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Koss singled to center, Bandura scored, Cavanaugh to second.6–4
- 5Eldridge grounded out to second, Koss scored, Gilbert to third.6–3
- 4Tatis Jr. singled to center, Salas scored.6–2
- 2Knizner homered to left (409 feet), Whitcomb scored.5–2
- 2Machado homered to left (392 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.5–0
- 2Tatis Jr. singled to center, Taylor scored.3–0
- 1Merrill doubled to left, Tatis Jr. scored and Harris scored, Machado to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 56%
- ML SD -143 / SF +119
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- SD: Elo 56.8%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -129
- SF +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.0 – 3.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −5 | SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +47 Elo | SD 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 17th of 3033–38 | Road vs home | 36–3821st of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 9th of 301528 | Elo rating | 147224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–73 | 75–74 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–48 | 20–30 |
| Underdog | 48–25 | 55–44 |
| Overs–unders | 65–78–5 | 70–66–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 33–18 SF in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 51.