Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jake McCarthyBatting3-5
- Mason AdamsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Veen reached on infield single to pitcher, Amador scored.2–6
- 8Greene doubled to right, Torkelson scored.1–6
- 6Clark scored on Frasso wild pitch.1–5
- 6Clark scored on Frasso wild pitch.1–5
- 6Dingler homered to left (408 feet), Greene scored.1–4
- 6Greene tripled to left, Torres scored.1–2
- 5Clark homered to right (355 feet).1–1
- 5Tovar scored, Carrigg safe at first on fielding error by third baseman McGonigle, Norby to second, McCarthy to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 62%
- ML COL +150 / DET -182
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- DET: Elo 62.3%, market 61.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -161
- COL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −10 | COL: Mason Adams: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +87 Elo | DET 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 64.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 61.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 30th of 3025–50 | Road vs home | 36–3618th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301409 | Elo rating | 150412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–70 | 70–76 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 31–50 |
| Underdog | 71–65 | 39–26 |
| Overs–unders | 70–72–4 | 63–77–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–7 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.