Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Troy MeltonPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Jenkins doubled to center, Culpepper scored and Larnach scored.4–5
- 5Greene homered to right (417 feet), Torres scored.2–5
- 4Larnach homered to right (351 feet).2–3
- 2McGonigle grounded into fielder's choice to first, Clark scored on throwing error by first baseman Lewis, Keith to second, Peck to third.1–3
- 2Keith hit by pitch, McKinstry scored, Peck to second, Clark to third.1–2
- 1McGonigle homered to right (375 feet).1–1
- 1Jeffers grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Keaschall scored, Lee third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML MIN +101 / DET -122
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- DET: Elo 57.1%, market 52.5%
- Fair odds
- DET -110
- MIN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.9 – 4.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +2 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Troy Melton: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +50 Elo | DET 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.37th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3030–41 | Road vs home | 34–3520th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301475 | Elo rating | 150212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–71 | 69–74 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–36 | 30–48 |
| Underdog | 52–35 | 39–26 |
| Overs–unders | 76–56–11 | 61–76–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 24–25 DET in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 49.