Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Jackson JobePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Brayan RocchioBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 10Schneemann singled to right, Genao scored, Bailey to second.2–3
- 5Rocchio homered to right center (375 feet).2–2
- 1Bazzana doubled to right, Kwan scored.2–1
- 1Greene doubled to right, Keith scored and Lee scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 61%
- ML DET +143 / CLE -173
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.2%, market 60.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -154
- DET +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +3 | DET: Jackson Jobe: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +22 Elo | CLE 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 60.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 24th of 3031–42 | Road vs home | 35–3923rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 12th of 301503 | Elo rating | 149714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–74 | 68–75 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 30–48 | 28–55 |
| Underdog | 38–26 | 40–20 |
| Overs–unders | 61–75–6 | 67–75–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 27–32 CLE in their last 59 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 59.