Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting1-4
- Parker MessickPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 7Malgeri singled to center, Greene scored.6–0
- 7Dingler hit sacrifice fly to left, Lee scored.5–0
- 7Greene doubled to center, Torres scored, Lee to third.4–0
- 6Greene homered to left center (421 feet).3–0
- 3Greene singled to center, Torres scored, Lee thrown out at third.2–0
- 1Greene homered to center (407 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 59%
- ML DET +134 / CLE -163
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 57.1%, market 59.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -145
- DET +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.1 – 3.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +12 | DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +50 Elo | CLE 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 59.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 24th of 3030–42 | Road vs home | 35–3822nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 14th of 301499 | Elo rating | 150113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–74 | 68–74 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 30–48 | 28–54 |
| Underdog | 37–26 | 40–20 |
| Overs–unders | 61–74–6 | 67–74–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 26–32 CLE in their last 58 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 58.