Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Andrew SearsPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Travis BazzanaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bazzana singled to center, Rocchio scored.3–4
- 8Bazzana homered to right center (389 feet), Kwan scored.3–3
- 6Lowe doubled to center, Ramírez scored.3–1
- 5Valencia singled to right, Torres scored, Dingler to third.3–0
- 3McGonigle doubled to right, Torres scored, Lee to third.2–0
- 3Lee singled to center, McKinstry scored, Torres to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 59%
- ML DET +133 / CLE -161
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.1%, market 59.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -144
- DET +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.4 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −7 | DET: Andrew Sears (no track record yet) · CLE: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +21 Elo | CLE 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 59.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3030–41 | Road vs home | 34–3823rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149727th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Elo rating | 150014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–74 | 68–73 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–48 | 28–53 |
| Underdog | 36–26 | 40–20 |
| Overs–unders | 61–73–6 | 67–73–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 26–31 CLE in their last 57 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 57.