Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Brayan RocchioBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rocchio homered to left center (405 feet).6–7
- 4Rocchio homered to right (366 feet), Genao scored, Bazzana scored and Bailey scored.6–6
- 4Bazzana singled to right, Lowe scored, Genao to third.6–2
- 3Torkelson homered to right (359 feet).6–1
- 2Lee grounded into double play, third to second to first, Torres scored, McGonigle out at second.5–1
- 1Adell hit sacrifice fly to center, DeLauter scored.4–1
- 1Clark singled to right, Greene scored and Malgeri scored, Torkelson to third.4–0
- 1Malgeri singled to center, McGonigle scored and Torres scored, Greene to second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 54%
- ML DET +108 / CLE -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 50.7%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -118
- DET +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −4 | DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +5 Elo | CLE 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3030–40 | Road vs home | 33–3825th of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Elo rating | 149914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–74 | 68–72 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–48 | 28–52 |
| Underdog | 35–26 | 40–20 |
| Overs–unders | 60–73–6 | 66–73–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 26–30 CLE in their last 56 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 56.