Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Connor NorbyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Yankees- George Lombard Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bellinger homered to right (357 feet).1–6
- 5Norby homered to left (408 feet).1–5
- 3Lombard Jr. homered to right (353 feet), Judge scored, García Jr. scored and Jones scored.0–5
- 2García Jr. homered to right center (413 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 69%
- ML COL +207 / NYY -257
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 68.1%, market 68.8%
- Fair odds
- NYY -221
- COL +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.9 – 5.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −13 | COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +132 Elo | NYY 68.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 65.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 68.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 30th of 3025–48 | Road vs home | 38–3112th of 30 |
| 1st of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 30th of 301412 | Elo rating | 15473rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–68 | 78–66 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 52–57 |
| Underdog | 71–63 | 26–9 |
| Overs–unders | 69–71–4 | 61–77–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–6 NYY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.