Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gabriel HughesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Heliot RamosBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goodman homered to right (347 feet), Rumfield scored.3–5
- 8Ramos homered to center (402 feet), Rice scored and Bellinger scored.1–5
- 5McMahon doubled to right, Lombard Jr. scored.1–2
- 3Amador homered to right center (385 feet).1–1
- 1García Jr. singled to left, Bellinger scored on throwing error by left fielder McCarthy, García Jr. to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 75%
- ML COL +277 / NYY -354
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 71.1%, market 74.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -294
- COL +294 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.6 – 4.9 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +4 | COL: Gabriel Hughes: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +157 Elo | NYY 71.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 71.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 71.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 74.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 29th of 3025–47 | Road vs home | 37–3112th of 30 |
| 1st of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 30th of 301413 | Elo rating | 15463rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–67 | 77–66 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 51–57 |
| Underdog | 71–62 | 26–9 |
| Overs–unders | 68–71–4 | 60–77–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–5 NYY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.