Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew AndersonPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Clemens homered to right center (374 feet), Keaschall scored.3–2
- 5McGonigle homered to left (362 feet), McKinstry scored.1–2
- 1Bell hit sacrifice fly to left, Lee scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML MIN +113 / DET -136
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- DET: Elo 58.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -123
- MIN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −5 | MIN: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Drew Anderson: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +59 Elo | DET 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 24th of 3030–42 | Road vs home | 35–3519th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301474 | Elo rating | 150312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–71 | 69–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–36 | 30–49 |
| Underdog | 53–35 | 39–26 |
| Overs–unders | 77–56–11 | 62–76–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 24–26 DET in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 50.