Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Josh BellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Travis AdamsPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Peck singled to right, Clark scored.2–7
- 7Dingler singled to center, Torkelson scored, Greene to second.2–6
- 4Bell homered to left (391 feet).2–5
- 4Clemens homered to left (373 feet).1–5
- 3Callahan hit a ground rule double, Lee scored, Greene to third.0–5
- 3Dingler hit sacrifice fly to left, McGonigle scored.0–4
- 3Greene walked, Peck scored, Lee to second, McGonigle to third.0–3
- 1Keith homered to right (357 feet), Lee scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML MIN +108 / DET -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- DET: Elo 55.6%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -118
- MIN +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.1 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +5 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +39 Elo | DET 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.38th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3031–42 | Road vs home | 35–3620th of 30 |
| 9th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149923rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301475 | Elo rating | 150112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–71 | 69–76 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–36 | 30–50 |
| Underdog | 54–35 | 39–26 |
| Overs–unders | 77–57–11 | 62–77–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 25–26 DET in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 51.