Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Adael AmadorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gabriel HughesPitching2.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jackson JobePitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Torkelson homered to left center (389 feet).1–8
- 4Greene singled to right, McGonigle scored, Keith to third.1–7
- 4Lee hit sacrifice fly to right, McKinstry scored, Peck to third.1–6
- 2McGonigle tripled to center, McKinstry scored and Peck scored. Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.1–5
- 2Peck singled to right, Clark scored, McKinstry to third.1–3
- 1Greene homered to left (365 feet), Keith scored.1–2
- 1Amador homered to right (394 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 62%
- ML COL +155 / DET -188
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- DET: Elo 66.2%, market 62.5%
- Fair odds
- DET -166
- COL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.9 – 5.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1406 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −3 | COL: Gabriel Hughes: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Jackson Jobe: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +116 Elo | DET 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 62.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 30th of 3025–52 | Road vs home | 38–3617th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 30th of 301406 | Elo rating | 150712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–72 | 72–76 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 33–50 |
| Underdog | 71–67 | 39–26 |
| Overs–unders | 71–72–5 | 64–77–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–9 DET in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.