Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew SearsPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lee tripled to right, Torkelson scored and Malgeri scored.7–11
- 8Peck hit sacrifice fly to center, Clark scored.7–9
- 8Malgeri walked, Valencia scored, Torkelson to second, Clark to third.7–8
- 8Torkelson walked, McKinstry scored, Clark to second, Valencia to third.7–7
- 8Greene singled to right, Torres scored.7–6
- 8Torres doubled to left, Lee scored.7–5
- 8Tovar homered to left (355 feet).7–4
- 6McCarthy singled to left, Beck and Amador scored, McCarthy safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Greene.6–4
- 4Keith singled to right, Lee scored.4–4
- 4Lee doubled to right, Callahan scored.4–3
- 4Amador doubled to right, Beck scored on error, Amador safe at third on fielding error by catcher Valencia.4–2
- 3Clark singled to right, Greene scored, Valencia to third.3–2
- 3McGonigle homered to right center (389 feet).3–1
- 3Goodman homered to left (362 feet), McCarthy scored and Norby scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 60%
- ML COL +138 / DET -168
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.8 pts
- DET: Elo 67.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -149
- COL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.8 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −5 | COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Andrew Sears: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +128 Elo | DET 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 30th of 3025–51 | Road vs home | 37–3617th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 30 |
| 30th of 301407 | Elo rating | 150612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–71 | 71–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 32–50 |
| Underdog | 71–66 | 39–26 |
| Overs–unders | 70–72–5 | 63–77–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–8 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.