San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Rockies- Cole CarriggBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Norby doubled to right, Tovar scored.8–7
- 8Harris doubled to right, Bogaerts scored, Fermin to third.8–6
- 7Carrigg homered to right (424 feet).7–6
- 7France singled to right, Harris scored.7–5
- 6Norby grounded out to shortstop, McCarthy scored.6–5
- 6McCarthy tripled to center, Amador scored and Tovar scored.6–4
- 5Rumfield singled to center, Norby scored, Goodman to second.6–2
- 3Merrill reached on infield single to second, France scored.6–1
- 2Tatis Jr. homered to center (449 feet), Cronenworth scored.5–1
- 2Fermin hit sacrifice fly to center, Bogaerts scored.3–1
- 2Cronenworth singled to right, Merrill scored, Bogaerts to third.2–1
- 1Rumfield singled to center, Goodman scored.1–1
- 1Machado homered to left (388 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 64%
- ML SD -207 / COL +169
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- SD: Elo 63.2%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- SD -181
- COL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 6.2 – 4.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +7 | SD: Casey Mize: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +94 Elo | SD 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 65.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.129th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 16th of 3034–38 | Road vs home | 30–4128th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15081st of 30 |
| 8th of 301529 | Elo rating | 140430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–73 | 76–73 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 28–48 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 48–25 | 71–68 |
| Overs–unders | 66–78–5 | 71–72–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 32–16 COL in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 48.