San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Connor NorbyBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Karros singled to right, Carrigg scored, Rumfield to third.9–2
- 5Harris singled to right, Taylor scored.9–1
- 5Taylor doubled to left, Cronenworth scored.8–1
- 2Bogaerts tripled to center, Merrill scored.7–1
- 2Merrill tripled to second, Harris scored and France scored.6–1
- 2Machado hit sacrifice fly to right, Tatis Jr. scored.4–1
- 2Harris singled to center, Cronenworth scored and Taylor scored, Tatis Jr. to third.3–1
- 2Bogaerts homered to left (441 feet).1–1
- 1Norby singled to center, McCarthy scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 64%
- ML SD -198 / COL +162
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- SD: Elo 67.7%, market 63.5%
- Fair odds
- SD -174
- COL +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 6.1 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −22 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 1.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +129 Elo | SD 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 64.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 63.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.76th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.129th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 14th of 3036–39 | Road vs home | 31–4328th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15081st of 30 |
| 9th of 301528 | Elo rating | 140530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–75 | 78–74 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 29–50 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 48–25 | 73–69 |
| Overs–unders | 69–78–5 | 74–72–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1–1 | 7–1–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 34–17 COL in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 51.