Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mack grounded out to second, Ramírez scored, Ruiz to second. Miami Marlins challenged: call on the field was overturned.3–2
- 6Swanson singled to left, Busch scored and Happ scored, Hoerner to second.2–2
- 6Stowers homered to center (412 feet), Lopez scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 63%
- ML MIA +159 / CHC -194
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.9%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -171
- MIA +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 2.7 – 3.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −6 | MIA: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +62 Elo | CHC 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 63.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 25th of 3032–47 | Road vs home | 45–349th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 19th of 301493 | Elo rating | 15444th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–79 | 78–79 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–37 | 43–63 |
| Underdog | 49–42 | 35–16 |
| Overs–unders | 81–72–4 | 86–62–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 11–12 CHC in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.