Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Padres- Samad TaylorBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Casey MizePitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Salas singled to center, Cronenworth scored.6–7
- 9Conine homered to right (427 feet).6–6
- 6France doubled to right, Harris scored.5–6
- 4Tatis Jr. homered to center (410 feet).5–5
- 3Taylor hit sacrifice fly to center, Campusano scored, Cronenworth to third.5–4
- 3France scored on a balk, Cronenworth to second on a balk, Campusano to third on a balk.5–3
- 3France scored on a balk, Cronenworth to second on a balk, Campusano to third on a balk.5–3
- 3Cronenworth walked, Machado scored, Campusano to second, France to third.5–2
- 3Ruiz singled to left, Ramírez scored.5–1
- 3Ramírez doubled to left, Marsee scored.4–1
- 2Taylor homered to left (388 feet).3–1
- 2Lopez homered to left center (367 feet), Mack scored.3–0
- 2Mack grounded into fielder's choice to second, Marsee scored, Ramírez out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 58%
- ML MIA +130 / SD -158
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- SD: Elo 57.3%, market 58.5%
- Fair odds
- SD -141
- MIA +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.4 – 4.1 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −9 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Casey Mize: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +51 Elo | SD 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 58.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.29th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 24th of 3031–45 | Road vs home | 47–295th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 19th of 301492 | Elo rating | 15329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–78 | 79–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–37 | 31–50 |
| Underdog | 47–41 | 48–25 |
| Overs–unders | 78–72–4 | 70–78–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 9–0–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 7–15 SD in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.