Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Griffin JaxPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-5
- Jose UrquidyPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vilade singled to center, DeLuca scored and Walls scored.12–1
- 7Stott scored, Crawford safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Palacios, Stubbs to second, De La Cruz to third.10–1
- 6Palacios singled to right, Caminero scored and Mesa Jr. scored.10–0
- 6Mesa Jr. doubled to right, Díaz scored, Caminero to third.8–0
- 5Mullins singled to center, Caminero scored and Mesa Jr. scored, Palacios to second.7–0
- 5Palacios walked, Hicks scored, Mesa Jr. to second, Caminero to third.5–0
- 5Mesa Jr. singled to center, Díaz scored, Caminero to second, Hicks to third.4–0
- 1Palacios doubled to right, Mesa Jr. scored.3–0
- 1Caminero homered to left center (399 feet), Díaz scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 54%
- ML TB +108 / PHI -130
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.4%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -118
- TB +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.1 – 3.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +3 | TB: Griffin Jax: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +17 Elo | PHI 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 7th of 3042–37 | Road vs home | 42–3713th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 6th of 301536 | Elo rating | 15318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–73 | 72–88 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 52–47 | 53–65 |
| Underdog | 35–26 | 19–23 |
| Overs–unders | 73–82–5 | 74–77–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 1–9 PHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.