Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane DrohanPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Andrew PainterPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chourio homered to left center (375 feet).5–1
- 8Ortiz singled to center, Sánchez scored, Pratt to second.4–1
- 8Pratt singled to center, Bauers scored, Sánchez to second.3–1
- 8Bauers singled to center, Chourio scored.2–1
- 3Harper singled to left, Schwarber scored.1–1
- 2Frelick doubled to left, Sánchez scored, Pratt to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 54%
- ML MIL +109 / PHI -131
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 46.8%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- MIL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.6 – 3.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −17 | MIL: Bryse Wilson: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Andrew Painter: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +22 Elo | MIL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3047–33 | Road vs home | 42–3512th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 1st of 301575 | Elo rating | 15356th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–75 | 72–86 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 58–63 | 53–63 |
| Underdog | 25–12 | 19–23 |
| Overs–unders | 71–81–6 | 74–75–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 13–10 PHI in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 23.