Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Justin CrawfordBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mets- Bo BichetteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jonah TongPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Crawford tripled to center, Stott scored, Marsh scored and Realmuto scored.7–2
- 7Baty singled to right, Alvarez scored, Ewing to second.4–2
- 6Bichette homered to left center (419 feet).4–1
- 3Arraez singled to center, Turner scored.4–0
- 3Turner doubled to left, Schwarber scored.3–0
- 1Bohm singled to center, Harper scored.2–0
- 1Arraez hit sacrifice fly to left, Schwarber scored, Harper to second. New York Mets challenged: call on the field was upheld.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML PHI -160 / NYM +132
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.0%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- PHI -143
- NYM +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.1 – 3.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −9 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Jonah Tong: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +28 Elo | PHI 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 5th of 3043–36 | Road vs home | 36–4427th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 7th of 301533 | Elo rating | 149915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–85 | 74–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 51–63 | 32–49 |
| Underdog | 19–22 | 42–32 |
| Overs–unders | 72–74–9 | 72–70–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 27–28 NYM in their last 55 meetings; the forecast called 36 of 55.