Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Mets- Bo BichetteBatting1-4
- Nolan McLeanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Crawford hit sacrifice fly to right, Stott scored.3–0
- 7Arraez hit sacrifice fly to center, Turner scored.2–0
- 5Harper reached on infield single to shortstop, Marsh scored, Turner to second, Schwarber to third. Philadelphia Phillies challenged: call on the field was overturned.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 54%
- ML PHI +109 / NYM -132
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 48.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.8 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +6 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +12 Elo | PHI 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 5th of 3042–34 | Road vs home | 34–4327th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 30 |
| 5th of 301536 | Elo rating | 149515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–83 | 72–80 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 51–63 | 30–48 |
| Underdog | 18–20 | 42–32 |
| Overs–unders | 70–73–9 | 70–69–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 26–26 NYM in their last 52 meetings; the forecast called 34 of 52.