Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Coby MayoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane BazPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Mets- Carson BengeBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Bichette singled to center, Alvarez scored.7–5
- 11Mayo hit inside-the-park home run to left (410 feet), Taveras scored and Beavers scored.7–4
- 10Semien doubled to left, Benge scored.4–4
- 10Encarnacion-Strand scored on Duarte wild pitch, Henderson to second.4–3
- 10Encarnacion-Strand scored on Duarte wild pitch, Henderson to second on wild pitch by Duarte.4–3
- 9Alonso homered to left center (414 feet).3–3
- 3Benge homered to right (368 feet).2–3
- 2Soto singled to center, Ewing scored, Baty to second.2–2
- 2Jackson homered to center (416 feet).2–1
- 2Encarnacion-Strand homered to left center (389 feet).1–1
- 1Young hit sacrifice fly to center, Soto scored, Bichette to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML BAL +113 / NYM -136
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 51.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -123
- BAL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.8 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −9 | BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +12 Elo | NYM 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 13th of 3037–39 | Road vs home | 34–4127th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 30 |
| 20th of 301490 | Elo rating | 150013th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–75 | 72–78 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 34–43 | 30–46 |
| Underdog | 42–32 | 42–32 |
| Overs–unders | 75–71–5 | 69–68–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 7–3 NYM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.