New York Mets at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- A.J. EwingBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ewing homered to right (388 feet).4–6
- 8McMahon singled to left, Caballero scored, Jones to third.3–6
- 8Semien hit sacrifice fly to center, Bichette scored, Pache to third.3–5
- 7Ewing singled to right, Benge scored, Young to second.2–5
- 5Rice homered to left center (371 feet).1–5
- 2Bellinger homered to right center (377 feet), Volpe scored and Rice scored.1–4
- 2Morel grounded out to shortstop, Vientos scored.1–1
- 1Jones singled to left, Rice scored, Judge to second, Bellinger to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML NYM +113 / NYY -137
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.2%, market 55.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -123
- NYM +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.8 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +3 | NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +64 Elo | NYY 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3034–38 | Road vs home | 40–3110th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 15th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15503rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–75 | 80–66 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 30–45 | 54–57 |
| Underdog | 41–30 | 26–9 |
| Overs–unders | 67–66–13 | 62–78–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 11–6 NYY in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.