Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Springer doubled to center, Bateman scored, Valenzuela scored and Straw scored.1–8
- 8Bateman walked, Lukes scored, Straw to second, Valenzuela to third.1–5
- 5Okamoto homered to left (410 feet).1–4
- 5Guerrero Jr. homered to left (350 feet).1–3
- 5Springer homered to right center (375 feet).1–2
- 5Alonso singled to right, Beavers scored.1–1
- 2Giménez doubled to left, McAdoo scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 58%
- ML BAL +127 / TOR -154
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 59.0%, market 57.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -138
- BAL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.1 – 3.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +21 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 1.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +63 Elo | TOR 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.030th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 13th of 3036–38 | Road vs home | 38–3618th of 30 |
| 8th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301492 | Elo rating | 151210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–74 | 77–72 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 34–43 | 30–47 |
| Underdog | 41–31 | 47–25 |
| Overs–unders | 74–70–5 | 74–70–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 27–21 TOR in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 48.