Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Nathaniel LoweBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Coby MayoBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lowe homered to right center (371 feet), Adell scored and Ramírez scored.4–6
- 6Mayo homered to left center (411 feet), Holliday scored.1–6
- 6Adell doubled to right, Rocchio scored, Kwan to third.1–4
- 3Alonso walked, Basallo scored, Alexander to second, Hinds to third.0–4
- 3Alexander walked, Encarnacion-Strand scored, Hinds to second, Basallo to third.0–3
- 3Mayo homered to left (426 feet).0–2
- 2Beavers doubled to right, Basallo scored, Hinds to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 56%
- ML CLE +118 / BAL -142
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 51.6%, market 56.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -128
- CLE +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.2 – 3.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −4 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +11 Elo | BAL 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 7th of 3037–32 | Road vs home | 34–3824th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15018th of 30 |
| 15th of 301498 | Elo rating | 149020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–76 | 72–72 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 28–56 | 32–42 |
| Underdog | 40–20 | 40–30 |
| Overs–unders | 67–76–1 | 69–70–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 15–10 BAL in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 25.