Toronto Blue Jays at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Josh SmithBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Donovan WaltonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack PerkinsPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Walton homered to right (369 feet).4–2
- 6Smith grounded into double play, second to first, Guerrero Jr. scored, Kirk out at second.4–1
- 6Kirk singled to center, Lukes scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.3–1
- 4Cortes homered to right (388 feet).2–1
- 2Okamoto homered to left (387 feet).2–0
- 2Smith homered to right (361 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 62%
- ML TOR -185 / ATH +152
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 57.7%, market 62.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -164
- ATH +164 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 5.0 – 4.0 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −1 | TOR: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jack Perkins: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +54 Elo | TOR 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 62.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.330th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 14th of 3035–38 | Road vs home | 26–4430th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 10th of 301513 | Elo rating | 143729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–70 | 69–76 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–45 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 47–25 | 58–48 |
| Overs–unders | 72–68–5 | 74–65–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 15–8 ATH in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.