Toronto Blue Jays at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Andres GimenezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Henry BolteBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9McNeil reached on infield single to shortstop, Walton scored, Bolte to second, Williams to third. Toronto Blue Jays challenged: call on the field was upheld.5–6
- 9Giménez homered to right center (415 feet).5–5
- 7Smith hit sacrifice fly to left, Clement scored.4–5
- 7Giménez doubled to left, Lukes scored, Clement to third.3–5
- 7Okamoto homered to left (423 feet).2–5
- 5Bolte homered to right (341 feet).1–5
- 3Cortes singled to right, Gelof scored.1–4
- 3Gelof grounded into fielder's choice to third, Bolte scored.1–3
- 2Kirk homered to right center (373 feet).1–2
- 1Gelof scored, Cortes to second, Cortes safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Okamoto.0–2
- 1Gelof scored, Cortes to second, Cortes safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Okamoto.0–2
- 1Gelof hit a ground rule double, Bolte scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 66%
- ML TOR -219 / ATH +178
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 60.3%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -191
- ATH +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 3.0 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +27 | +15 | TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 1.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +73 Elo | TOR 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 64.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.330th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 13th of 3035–37 | Road vs home | 25–4430th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 10th of 301514 | Elo rating | 143529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–69 | 68–76 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–44 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 47–25 | 57–48 |
| Overs–unders | 71–68–5 | 73–65–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 15–7 ATH in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 22.