Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Chase DeLauterBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching2.1 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Dylan BeaversBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Shane BazPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Mayo homered to left center (407 feet).5–9
- 6Bailey doubled to right, Genao scored.5–8
- 6Lowe homered to right (407 feet), Bazzana scored.4–8
- 3Beavers singled to right, Jackson scored, Taveras to third.2–8
- 3Taveras singled to left, Holliday scored, Jackson to second.2–7
- 3Jackson singled to center, Encarnacion-Strand scored, Holliday to third.2–6
- 3Hinds hit sacrifice fly to left, Mayo scored, Holliday to second, Encarnacion-Strand to third.2–5
- 3Holliday singled to left, Alonso scored, Encarnacion-Strand to second, Mayo to third.2–4
- 3Encarnacion-Strand hit by pitch, Beavers scored, Mayo to second, Alonso to third.2–3
- 3Beavers doubled to shortstop, Narváez scored and Taveras scored.2–2
- 1DeLauter homered to right center (410 feet), Kwan scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML CLE -118 / BAL -102
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 47.0%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -107
- BAL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +8 | CLE: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +21 Elo | BAL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 8th of 3038–33 | Road vs home | 35–3924th of 30 |
| 26th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15018th of 30 |
| 14th of 301499 | Elo rating | 148919th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–77 | 73–73 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 28–56 | 33–43 |
| Underdog | 41–21 | 40–30 |
| Overs–unders | 69–76–1 | 71–70–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 16–11 BAL in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 27.