Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Travis BazzanaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rocchio singled to center, Adell scored and Martínez scored, Halpin to third.9–5
- 7Martínez grounded into fielder's choice to first, Ramírez scored on error, Adell safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Alonso, Adell safe at third on error.7–5
- 5Alonso homered to left (420 feet), Holliday scored.6–5
- 5Holliday singled to right, Taveras scored.6–3
- 5Taveras doubled to center, Alexander scored.6–2
- 4Basallo grounded out to first, Holliday scored, Mayo to second, Henderson to third.6–1
- 3Halpin singled to right, Lowe scored, Martínez to third.6–0
- 2Bazzana homered to right center (378 feet), Halpin scored and Kwan scored.5–0
- 2Bailey singled to right, Martínez scored.2–0
- 1Adell singled to left, Kwan scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 53%
- ML CLE +104 / BAL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.0%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -113
- CLE +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 4.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +9 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +28 Elo | BAL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 8th of 3037–33 | Road vs home | 35–3824th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15018th of 30 |
| 15th of 301497 | Elo rating | 149219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–77 | 73–72 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–56 | 33–42 |
| Underdog | 40–21 | 40–30 |
| Overs–unders | 68–76–1 | 70–70–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 15–11 BAL in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 26.