Toronto Blue Jays at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Brett BatemanBatting1-4
- Michael LorenzenPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Henry BolteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady BassoPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4White scored on Lorenzen wild pitch, Muncy to second on wild pitch by Lorenzen.0–2
- 4White scored on Lorenzen wild pitch, Muncy to second on wild pitch by Lorenzen.0–2
- 3Bolte homered to left center (414 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 59%
- ML TOR -162 / ATH +134
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 58.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -145
- ATH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 5.2 – 4.3 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +15 | TOR: Braydon Fisher: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ATH: Brady Basso: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +59 Elo | TOR 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.330th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 13th of 3036–38 | Road vs home | 26–4530th of 30 |
| 4th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 10th of 301514 | Elo rating | 143529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–70 | 69–77 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–45 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 47–25 | 58–49 |
| Overs–unders | 72–69–5 | 74–66–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 16–8 ATH in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 24.