Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Clement hit sacrifice fly to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.3–7
- 7Alonso homered to left (387 feet), Pozo scored.3–6
- 6Giménez doubled to right, Smith scored.1–6
- 4Henderson scored, Encarnacion-Strand safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Okamoto, Encarnacion-Strand advanced to second.1–5
- 3Kirk homered to left center (414 feet), Springer scored.0–5
- 3Bateman homered to right center (403 feet).0–3
- 1Kirk singled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored.0–2
- 1Guerrero Jr. doubled to right, Bateman scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 56%
- ML BAL +118 / TOR -142
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.9%, market 56.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -128
- BAL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.7 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −13 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Spencer Miles: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +20 Elo | TOR 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 13th of 3036–37 | Road vs home | 37–3618th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 17th of 301494 | Elo rating | 151011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–73 | 76–72 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–43 | 29–47 |
| Underdog | 41–30 | 47–25 |
| Overs–unders | 73–70–5 | 73–70–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 27–20 TOR in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 47.