Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Dylan BeaversBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Brett BatemanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bateman homered to center (403 feet), Clement scored.7–4
- 7Mayo homered to left (395 feet).7–2
- 6Giménez grounded out to second, Lukes scored, Okamoto to third.6–2
- 4Okamoto homered to right center (399 feet).6–1
- 2Beavers singled to right, Kjerstad scored and Cowser scored.6–0
- 2Cowser doubled to left, Basallo scored and Encarnacion-Strand scored, Kjerstad to third.4–0
- 2Kjerstad singled to right, Henderson scored, Encarnacion-Strand to second, Basallo to third.2–0
- 1Beavers homered to right (375 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML BAL +113 / TOR -137
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 55.9%, market 55.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -123
- BAL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.8 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −6 | BAL: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +41 Elo | TOR 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 13th of 3035–37 | Road vs home | 37–3517th of 30 |
| 8th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 18th of 301492 | Elo rating | 151210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–73 | 76–71 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 34–43 | 29–46 |
| Underdog | 40–30 | 47–25 |
| Overs–unders | 72–70–5 | 72–70–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 26–20 TOR in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 46.