New York Mets at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Zac ThorntonPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Young homered to right (365 feet).12–2
- 8Lindor homered to right center (365 feet), Ewing scored, Torrens scored and Morabito scored.11–2
- 8Torrens doubled to left, Semien scored, Ewing to third.7–2
- 7Soto homered to right center (400 feet).6–2
- 6Bellinger homered to right center (364 feet).5–2
- 5Benge singled to center, Soto scored.5–1
- 4Bellinger singled to right, Goldschmidt scored.4–1
- 3Benge homered to right center (368 feet).4–0
- 2Torrens homered to left (387 feet), Young scored.3–0
- 1Lindor homered to right (359 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML NYM +141 / NYY -171
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 62.0%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -152
- NYM +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.5 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +7 | NYM: Zac Thornton: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +85 Elo | NYY 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3034–39 | Road vs home | 41–319th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 16th of 301498 | Elo rating | 15513rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–76 | 81–66 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 30–45 | 55–57 |
| Underdog | 41–31 | 26–9 |
| Overs–unders | 68–66–13 | 63–78–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 11–7 NYY in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.