Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jackson KentPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lile homered to center (407 feet), Ford scored and Pinckney scored.3–6
- 5Chaparro homered to center (422 feet).3–3
- 5Schwarber homered to right (366 feet).3–2
- 3Arraez doubled to left, Turner scored.2–2
- 1Vivas singled to left, Morales scored, Young to second.1–2
- 1Morales doubled to center, House scored.1–1
- 1Bohm singled to center, Schwarber scored, Arraez to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 66%
- ML PHI -222 / WSH +181
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 59.8%, market 66.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -194
- WSH +194 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −15 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Jackson Kent: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +69 Elo | PHI 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 64.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 66.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 5th of 3041–33 | Road vs home | 36–4025th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 6th of 301537 | Elo rating | 146825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–82 | 84–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 50–62 | 21–21 |
| Underdog | 18–20 | 63–46 |
| Overs–unders | 69–72–9 | 79–63–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 32–18 WSH in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 50.