Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Vaughn GrissomBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Nationals- Abimelec OrtizBatting2-2, 2 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Ford grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Abrams scored on fielding error by shortstop Neto.5–6
- 9Chaparro singled to center, Tena scored.5–5
- 9Ballesteros hit sacrifice fly to left, Guzman scored.5–4
- 9Guzman doubled to left, Peraza scored.4–4
- 8Grissom homered to left (360 feet), Meckler scored.3–4
- 8Meckler doubled to right, Trout scored.1–4
- 2Ortiz singled to right, Young scored and Wood scored.0–4
- 2Young singled to left, Ruiz scored, Young to second. Washington Nationals challenged: call on the field was upheld.0–2
- 1Abrams doubled to center, Ortiz scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 54%
- ML LAA +109 / WSH -132
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- WSH: Elo 53.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -119
- LAA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.1 – 4.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +4 | LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Andrew Alvarez: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +25 Elo | WSH 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 28th of 3026–47 | Road vs home | 34–4026th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301448 | Elo rating | 146627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–78 | 84–65 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–25 | 21–19 |
| Underdog | 61–53 | 63–46 |
| Overs–unders | 59–85–3 | 77–63–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–6 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.