Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Jorbit VivasBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moore doubled to center, Peraza scored.3–4
- 8Vivas doubled to right, Crews scored and Morales scored.2–4
- 8Pinckney hit sacrifice fly to right, Abrams scored, Crews to third.2–2
- 7Moore singled to left, Grissom scored, Ballesteros to second.2–1
- 4Wood singled to left, Ford scored, Vivas to second.1–1
- 1Trout homered to center (416 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 59%
- ML LAA +133 / WSH -161
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- WSH: Elo 57.6%, market 59.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -144
- LAA +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.6 – 4.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +10 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +53 Elo | WSH 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 59.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 27th of 3026–46 | Road vs home | 33–4027th of 30 |
| 9th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301449 | Elo rating | 146627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–78 | 84–64 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–25 | 21–18 |
| Underdog | 60–53 | 63–46 |
| Overs–unders | 59–84–3 | 77–62–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–5 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.