Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Moises BallesterosBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Yohandy MoralesBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moore grounded out to third, Lowe scored.5–6
- 8Crews singled to left, Young scored.4–6
- 8Young doubled to left, Vivas scored.4–5
- 8Vivas singled to left, Lile scored.4–4
- 8Lile tripled to right, Morales scored.4–3
- 8Ballesteros hit sacrifice fly to right, Meckler scored, Grissom to third.4–2
- 8Neto scored on Tolman wild pitch, Grissom to second on wild pitch by Tolman, Meckler to third on wild pitch by Tolman.3–2
- 8Neto scored on Tolman wild pitch, Grissom to second on wild pitch by Tolman, Meckler to third on wild pitch by Tolman.3–2
- 6House grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Morales scored, Ruiz out at second, Lile to third.2–2
- 6Morales singled to center, Abrams scored.2–1
- 5Neto homered to center (440 feet).2–0
- 4Ballesteros homered to center (407 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 55%
- ML LAA +114 / WSH -138
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 57.5%, market 55.4%
- Fair odds
- WSH -124
- LAA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.5 – 5.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −4 | LAA: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +53 Elo | WSH 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 55.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 28th of 3026–48 | Road vs home | 35–4026th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301447 | Elo rating | 146726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–78 | 84–66 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–25 | 21–20 |
| Underdog | 62–53 | 63–46 |
| Overs–unders | 60–85–3 | 78–63–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–7 WSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.