Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting2-4
- Riley CornelioPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Arraez doubled to center, Harper scored.3–0
- 1Stott walked, Harper scored, Bohm to second, Arraez to third.2–0
- 1Bohm singled to center, Turner scored, Arraez to second, Harper to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 63%
- ML PHI -194 / WSH +159
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.5%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -171
- WSH +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.1 – 3.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +4 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Jared Simpson (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +52 Elo | PHI 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 5th of 3041–34 | Road vs home | 37–4022nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 6th of 301535 | Elo rating | 147125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–83 | 85–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 50–63 | 21–21 |
| Underdog | 18–20 | 64–46 |
| Overs–unders | 70–72–9 | 80–63–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 32–19 WSH in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 51.