Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Mets- Marcus SemienBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Xzavion CurryPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Basallo singled to right, Encarnacion-Strand scored.7–1
- 4Semien singled to left, Young scored.6–1
- 3Basallo homered to center (425 feet).6–0
- 3Encarnacion-Strand homered to left center (399 feet), Mayo scored.5–0
- 2Jackson homered to center (404 feet), Encarnacion-Strand scored.3–0
- 1Alonso homered to left center (410 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML BAL -103 / NYM -117
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 54.3%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- NYM -106
- BAL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −2 | BAL: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Xzavion Curry: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +30 Elo | NYM 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 12th of 3038–39 | Road vs home | 34–4227th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 30 |
| 18th of 301492 | Elo rating | 149914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–75 | 72–79 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–43 | 30–47 |
| Underdog | 43–32 | 42–32 |
| Overs–unders | 76–71–5 | 70–68–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 8–3 NYM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.