Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Andrew PainterPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Mets- Carson BengeBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Benge reached on infield single to third, Lindor scored, Bichette to second, Soto to third.3–10
- 8Bichette singled to right, Morabito scored, Soto to second, Lindor to third.3–9
- 8Soto singled to left, Baty scored, Lindor to second, Morabito to third.3–8
- 8Lindor walked, Semien scored, Morabito to second, Baty to third.3–7
- 6Mauricio walked, Ewing scored, Baty to second, Semien to third.3–6
- 6Baty singled to center, Benge scored, Semien to second, Ewing to third.3–5
- 5Alvarez homered to right center (387 feet), Semien scored and Baty scored.3–4
- 5Bohm singled to left, Turner scored, Arraez to third.3–1
- 5Harper hit sacrifice fly to center, Schwarber scored.2–1
- 4Bohm singled to center, Harper scored.1–1
- 2Benge homered to right (370 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML PHI +104 / NYM -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 50.2%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -113
- PHI +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.9 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +14 | PHI: Andrew Painter: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +1 Elo | NYM 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 5th of 3043–35 | Road vs home | 35–4427th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 6th of 301536 | Elo rating | 149515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–84 | 73–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 51–63 | 31–49 |
| Underdog | 19–21 | 42–32 |
| Overs–unders | 71–74–9 | 71–70–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 27–27 NYM in their last 54 meetings; the forecast called 35 of 54.