Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose UrquidyPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Mets- Juan SotoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zac ThorntonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hill homered to left (408 feet).3–6
- 6Soto homered to center (428 feet), Semien scored and Torrens scored.2–6
- 6Sosa homered to left center (377 feet).2–3
- 2Stott doubled to center, Sosa scored.1–3
- 1Ewing singled to center, Benge scored and Bichette scored, Ewing to second, Vientos to third.0–3
- 1Benge singled to left, Lindor scored, Bichette to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 54%
- ML PHI +109 / NYM -131
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 48.4%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.1 – 4.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −1 | PHI: Tim Mayza: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: Zac Thornton: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +11 Elo | PHI 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 5th of 3043–34 | Road vs home | 34–4427th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 30 |
| 5th of 301538 | Elo rating | 149318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–83 | 72–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 51–63 | 30–49 |
| Underdog | 19–20 | 42–32 |
| Overs–unders | 70–74–9 | 70–70–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 27–26 NYM in their last 53 meetings; the forecast called 34 of 53.