Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Gary SanchezBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Jeremiah JacksonBatting1-4
- Trevor RogersPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 2Sánchez grounded out to third, Ortiz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 50%
- ML MIL -109 / BAL -111
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 40.6%, market 50.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -101
- MIL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.7 – 3.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −7 | MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +66 Elo | MIL 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 50.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 4th of 3044–32 | Road vs home | 36–4025th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 1st of 301572 | Elo rating | 149417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–74 | 79–75 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 56–63 | 34–43 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 45–32 |
| Overs–unders | 70–78–6 | 77–72–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–3 BAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.