Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Logan HendersonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Yelich singled to left, Bauers scored and Chourio scored, Contreras to second.5–4
- 6Flores Jr. homered to right center (407 feet).3–4
- 5Lowe homered to right (418 feet), Griffin scored.3–3
- 5Turang doubled to center, Pratt scored.3–1
- 4Cruz homered to right (391 feet).2–1
- 2Pratt singled to center, Lara scored, Pratt to second, Vaughn to third.2–0
- 2Vaughn singled to left, Ortiz scored, Lara to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML MIL -135 / PIT +112
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 59.4%, market 54.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -122
- PIT +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 3.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +3 | MIL: Logan Henderson: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +66 Elo | MIL 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 54.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 4th of 3042–31 | Road vs home | 38–3514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 1st of 301573 | Elo rating | 149815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–71 | 68–83 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 56–60 | 27–51 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 41–32 |
| Overs–unders | 67–78–6 | 76–68–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 30–20 PIT in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 35 of 50.